Model probabilities Matteo Berrettini 44.4% · Ugo Humbert 55.6% Why Ugo Humbert is favoured Ugo Humbert's Elo (1657) is +23 over Matteo Berrettini (1634); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 43.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 44.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.