Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Karolina Pliskova
To win
+$5.80
Total payout
$25.80
Joint prob
79.6%
Combined odds
1.29
Fair odds
1.26
Edge
+2.7%
Expected value: +$0.54 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.54 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 79.6% · fair market: 75.1% · edge: +5.9%
Model probabilities Oleksandra Oliynykova 20.4% · Karolina Pliskova 79.6% +EV vs market away: model 79.6% vs market 75.1% (edge +5.9%, suggested Kelly +9.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.