Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 21.0% · fair market: 22.8% · edge: -8.0%
Model probabilities Rebecca Sramkova 21.0% · Diana Shnaider 79.0% Why Diana Shnaider is favoured Diana Shnaider's Elo (1635) is +143 over Rebecca Sramkova (1492); high confidence. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.