Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ekaterina Alexandrova
To win
+$48.60
Total payout
$68.60
Joint prob
39.3%
Combined odds
3.43
Fair odds
2.55
Edge
+34.7%
Expected value: +$6.95 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.95 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 39.3% · fair market: 28.4% · edge: +38.4%
Model probabilities Marta Kostyuk 60.7% · Ekaterina Alexandrova 39.3% Why Marta Kostyuk is favoured Marta Kostyuk's Elo (1805) is +142 over Ekaterina Alexandrova (1663); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 79.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 60.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 39.3% vs market 28.4% (edge +38.4%, suggested Kelly +14.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.