Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Duncan Chan
To win
+$51.00
Total payout
$71.00
Joint prob
42.2%
Combined odds
3.55
Fair odds
2.37
Edge
+49.7%
Expected value: +$9.94 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$9.94 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 42.2% · fair market: 27.4% · edge: +53.9%
Duncan Chan, ranked 601st, recently qualified for the National Bank Open main draw by upsetting world No. 90 Hugo Gaston. The 21-year-old Canadian is entering his senior season at Texas Christian University, where he was named the most improved player in NCAA men's tennis.
Lineup: Expected to play in the main draw of the ATP Canadian Open.
Thiago Agustin Tirante, ranked 61st, is a 25-year-old Argentine player who is considered the strong favorite for this match. He is enjoying the best season of his career, though his hardcourt game remains an area for improvement.
Lineup: Expected to play in the main draw of the ATP Canadian Open.
“Qualifier Duncan Chan, riding momentum from an upset victory, faces seasoned favorite Thiago Agustin Tirante in the ATP Canadian Open first round.”
Model probabilities Duncan Chan 42.2% · Thiago Agustin Tirante 57.8% +EV vs market home: model 42.2% vs market 27.4% (edge +53.9%, suggested Kelly +19.5% of bankroll). News context Qualifier Duncan Chan, riding momentum from an upset victory, faces seasoned favorite Thiago Agustin Tirante in the ATP Canadian Open first round. Duncan Chan: Duncan Chan, ranked 601st, recently qualified for the National Bank Open main draw by upsetting world No. 90 Hugo Gaston. The 21-year-old Canadian is entering his senior season at Texas Christian University, where he was named the most improved player in NCAA men's tennis. Thiago Agustin Tirante: Thiago Agustin Tirante, ranked 61st, is a 25-year-old Argentine player who is considered the strong favorite for this match. He is enjoying the best season of his career, though his hardcourt game remains an area for improvement.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.