Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Harriet Dart
To win
+$91.20
Total payout
$111.20
Joint prob
24.2%
Combined odds
5.56
Fair odds
4.14
Edge
+34.4%
Expected value: +$6.89 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.89 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 24.2% · fair market: 17.5% · edge: +38.1%
Model probabilities Harriet Dart 24.2% · Marie Bouzkova 75.8% Why Marie Bouzkova is favoured Marie Bouzkova's Elo (1648) is +222 over Harriet Dart (1426); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 14.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 24.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 24.2% vs market 17.9% (edge +34.9%, suggested Kelly +7.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.