Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Yi Zhou
To win
+$58.80
Total payout
$78.80
Joint prob
46.2%
Combined odds
3.94
Fair odds
2.17
Edge
+81.9%
Expected value: +$16.37 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$16.37 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 46.2% · fair market: 24.5% · edge: +88.2%
Model probabilities Mattia Bellucci 53.8% · Yi Zhou 46.2% Why Mattia Bellucci is favoured Mattia Bellucci's Elo (1486) is +17 over Yi Zhou (1469); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 55.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 46.2% vs market 24.5% (edge +88.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.