Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Trevor Svajda
To win
+$29.80
Total payout
$49.80
Joint prob
54.9%
Combined odds
2.49
Fair odds
1.82
Edge
+36.8%
Expected value: +$7.36 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.36 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 54.9% · fair market: 38.5% · edge: +42.6%
Model probabilities Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 45.1% · Trevor Svajda 54.9% Calibration Raw model: 65.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 54.9% vs market 38.5% (edge +42.6%, suggested Kelly +24.7% of bankroll).