Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ekaterina Alexandrova
To win
+$7.00
Total payout
$27.00
Joint prob
75.7%
Combined odds
1.35
Fair odds
1.32
Edge
+2.1%
Expected value: +$0.43 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.43 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 75.7% · fair market: 71.6% · edge: +5.6%
Anna Blinkova recently secured a three-set victory in the first round of the Cincinnati Open, indicating a positive start to her tournament campaign. She has demonstrated resilience in her recent matches on hard courts.
Lineup: Anna Blinkova is expected to start her match against Ekaterina Alexandrova in the WTA Cincinnati Open.
Ekaterina Alexandrova enters this match following a recent loss in Toronto to Elina Svitolina. Despite this, she had secured several wins in the preceding matches, suggesting a generally competitive form.
Lineup: Ekaterina Alexandrova is expected to start her match against Anna Blinkova in the WTA Cincinnati Open.
“Anna Blinkova enters Cincinnati Open with recent win, while Ekaterina Alexandrova seeks to rebound from a recent loss in Toronto.”
Model probabilities Anna Blinkova 24.3% · Ekaterina Alexandrova 75.7% Why Ekaterina Alexandrova is favoured Ekaterina Alexandrova's Elo (1662) is +157 over Anna Blinkova (1504); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 19.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 24.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 75.7% vs market 71.6% (edge +5.6%, suggested Kelly +6.1% of bankroll). News context Anna Blinkova enters Cincinnati Open with recent win, while Ekaterina Alexandrova seeks to rebound from a recent loss in Toronto. Anna Blinkova: Anna Blinkova recently secured a three-set victory in the first round of the Cincinnati Open, indicating a positive start to her tournament campaign. She has demonstrated resilience in her recent matches on hard courts. Ekaterina Alexandrova: Ekaterina Alexandrova enters this match following a recent loss in Toronto to Elina Svitolina. Despite this, she had secured several wins in the preceding matches, suggesting a generally competitive form.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.