Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Marin Cilic
To win
+$15.40
Total payout
$35.40
Joint prob
77.8%
Combined odds
1.77
Fair odds
1.29
Edge
+37.7%
Expected value: +$7.54 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.54 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 77.8% · fair market: 55.0% · edge: +41.5%
Model probabilities Sho Shimabukuro 22.2% · Marin Cilic 77.8% Why Marin Cilic is favoured Marin Cilic's Elo (1589) is +131 over Sho Shimabukuro (1457); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 77.8% vs market 55.0% (edge +41.5%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.