Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Juan Manuel Cerundolo
To win
+$36.80
Total payout
$56.80
Joint prob
33.1%
Combined odds
2.84
Fair odds
3.02
Edge
-6.0%
Expected value: $-1.20 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-1.20 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 33.1% · fair market: 30.2% · edge: +9.5%
Model probabilities Casper Ruud 66.9% · Juan Manuel Cerundolo 33.1% Why Casper Ruud is favoured Casper Ruud's Elo (1632) is +83 over Juan Manuel Cerundolo (1549); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 70.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 66.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 33.1% vs market 30.2% (edge +9.5%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.