Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Belinda Bencic
To win
+$2.20
Total payout
$22.20
Joint prob
92.9%
Combined odds
1.11
Fair odds
1.08
Edge
+3.1%
Expected value: +$0.63 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.63 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 92.9% · fair market: 86.5% · edge: +7.4%
Model probabilities Sloane Stephens 7.1% · Belinda Bencic 92.9% Why Belinda Bencic is favoured Belinda Bencic's Elo (1785) is +365 over Sloane Stephens (1420); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 92.9% vs market 86.5% (edge +7.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.