Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Bu Yunchaokete
To win
+$25.80
Total payout
$45.80
Joint prob
69.5%
Combined odds
2.29
Fair odds
1.44
Edge
+59.1%
Expected value: +$11.82 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$11.82 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 69.5% · fair market: 41.9% · edge: +65.9%
Model probabilities Quentin Halys 30.5% · Bu Yunchaokete 69.5% Why Bu Yunchaokete is favoured Bu Yunchaokete's Elo (1587) is +65 over Quentin Halys (1522); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 32.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 30.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 69.5% vs market 41.9% (edge +65.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.