Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alina Charaeva
To win
+$60.40
Total payout
$80.40
Joint prob
53.0%
Combined odds
4.02
Fair odds
1.89
Edge
+113.2%
Expected value: +$22.63 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$22.63 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.0% · fair market: 24.0% · edge: +120.9%
Model probabilities Alina Korneeva 47.0% · Alina Charaeva 53.0% Calibration Raw model: 68.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 47.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 53.0% vs market 24.0% (edge +120.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).