Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 31.2% · fair market: 32.8% · edge: -5.0%
Model probabilities Sinja Kraus 31.2% · Dayana Yastremska 68.8% Why Dayana Yastremska is favoured Dayana Yastremska's Elo (1537) is +81 over Sinja Kraus (1456); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 29.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 31.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.