Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Yu Jun Lin
To win
+$200.20
Total payout
$220.20
Joint prob
50.1%
Combined odds
11.01
Fair odds
2.00
Edge
+451.7%
Expected value: +$90.34 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$90.34 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 50.1% · fair market: 8.8% · edge: +470.6%
Model probabilities Yu Jun Lin 50.1% · Storm Hunter 49.9% Calibration Raw model: 53.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 50.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 50.1% vs market 8.8% (edge +470.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).