Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sonay Kartal
To win
+$18.60
Total payout
$38.60
Joint prob
70.8%
Combined odds
1.93
Fair odds
1.41
Edge
+36.7%
Expected value: +$7.34 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.34 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 70.8% · fair market: 50.4% · edge: +40.6%
Model probabilities Sonay Kartal 70.8% · Xinyu Wang 29.2% Why Sonay Kartal is favoured Sonay Kartal's Elo (1645) is +134 over Xinyu Wang (1511); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 78.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 70.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 70.8% vs market 50.4% (edge +40.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.