Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Lorenzo Musetti
To win
+$2.20
Total payout
$22.20
Joint prob
91.0%
Combined odds
1.11
Fair odds
1.10
Edge
+1.0%
Expected value: +$0.20 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.20 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 91.0% · fair market: 86.9% · edge: +4.7%
Model probabilities Nicolas Mejia 9.0% · Lorenzo Musetti 91.0% Why Lorenzo Musetti is favoured Lorenzo Musetti's Elo (1723) is +318 over Nicolas Mejia (1405); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 91.0% vs market 86.9% (edge +4.7%, suggested Kelly +9.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.