Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
To win
+$70.40
Total payout
$90.40
Joint prob
33.5%
Combined odds
4.52
Fair odds
2.98
Edge
+51.5%
Expected value: +$10.30 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$10.30 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 33.5% · fair market: 21.7% · edge: +54.7%
Model probabilities Tommy Paul 66.5% · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 33.5% Why Tommy Paul is favoured Tommy Paul's Elo (1736) is +227 over Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (1509); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 86.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 66.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 33.5% vs market 21.7% (edge +54.7%, suggested Kelly +14.6% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.