Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Mariano Navone
To win
+$24.00
Total payout
$44.00
Joint prob
56.4%
Combined odds
2.20
Fair odds
1.77
Edge
+24.2%
Expected value: +$4.84 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.84 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 56.4% · fair market: 43.9% · edge: +28.6%
Model probabilities Alexander Blockx 43.6% · Mariano Navone 56.4% Why Mariano Navone is favoured Alexander Blockx's Elo (1491) is +42 over Mariano Navone (1449); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 62.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 56.4% vs market 43.9% (edge +28.6%, suggested Kelly +20.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.