Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Darwin Blanch
To win
+$28.40
Total payout
$48.40
Joint prob
64.6%
Combined odds
2.42
Fair odds
1.55
Edge
+56.4%
Expected value: +$11.29 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$11.29 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 64.6% · fair market: 39.8% · edge: +62.4%
Model probabilities Aleksandar Vukic 35.4% · Darwin Blanch 64.6% Why Darwin Blanch is favoured Darwin Blanch's Elo (1483) is +21 over Aleksandar Vukic (1462); low confidence. Calibration Raw model: 43.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 35.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 64.6% vs market 39.8% (edge +62.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (35% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.