Model probabilities Rafael Jodar 17.1% · Lorenzo Musetti 82.9% Why Lorenzo Musetti is favoured Lorenzo Musetti's Elo (1723) is +185 over Rafael Jodar (1539); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.