Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Amanda Anisimova
To win
+$14.80
Total payout
$34.80
Joint prob
70.1%
Combined odds
1.74
Fair odds
1.43
Edge
+22.1%
Expected value: +$4.41 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.41 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 70.1% · fair market: 55.9% · edge: +25.4%
Model probabilities Alexandra Eala 29.9% · Amanda Anisimova 70.1% Why Amanda Anisimova is favoured Amanda Anisimova's Elo (1816) is +126 over Alexandra Eala (1690); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 22.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 29.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 70.1% vs market 55.9% (edge +25.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.