Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sebastian Ofner
To win
+$13.40
Total payout
$33.40
Joint prob
60.9%
Combined odds
1.67
Fair odds
1.64
Edge
+1.7%
Expected value: +$0.34 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.34 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 60.9% · fair market: 57.4% · edge: +6.1%
Model probabilities Marco Trungelliti 39.1% · Sebastian Ofner 60.9% Why Sebastian Ofner is favoured Elo essentially level (1456 vs 1449) — winner depends on context. Calibration Raw model: 52.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 39.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 60.9% vs market 57.4% (edge +6.1%, suggested Kelly +2.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.