Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alex de Minaur
To win
+$6.00
Total payout
$26.00
Joint prob
79.9%
Combined odds
1.30
Fair odds
1.25
Edge
+3.9%
Expected value: +$0.78 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.78 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 79.9% · fair market: 69.2% · edge: +15.5%
Model probabilities Cameron Norrie 20.1% · Alex de Minaur 79.9% Why Alex de Minaur is favoured Alex de Minaur's Elo (1778) is +151 over Cameron Norrie (1627); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 79.9% vs market 69.2% (edge +15.5%, suggested Kelly +12.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.