Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Gael Monfils
To win
+$78.20
Total payout
$98.20
Joint prob
28.0%
Combined odds
4.91
Fair odds
3.57
Edge
+37.4%
Expected value: +$7.48 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.48 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 28.0% · fair market: 19.9% · edge: +40.6%
Model probabilities Gael Monfils 28.0% · Learner Tien 72.0% Why Learner Tien is favoured Learner Tien's Elo (1745) is +154 over Gael Monfils (1591); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 19.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 28.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 28.0% vs market 19.9% (edge +40.6%, suggested Kelly +9.6% of bankroll).