Model probabilities Daniel Merida Aguilar 68.1% · Sebastian Baez 31.9% Why Daniel Merida Aguilar is favoured Daniel Merida Aguilar's Elo (1589) is +91 over Sebastian Baez (1498); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 72.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 68.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (45% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.