Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arthur Fils
To win
+$1.60
Total payout
$21.60
Joint prob
90.2%
Combined odds
1.08
Fair odds
1.11
Edge
-2.6%
Expected value: $-0.52 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: $-0.52 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 90.2% · fair market: 50.0% · edge: +80.4%
Model probabilities Zachary Svajda 9.8% · Arthur Fils 90.2% Why Arthur Fils is favoured Arthur Fils's Elo (1781) is +301 over Zachary Svajda (1480); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 90.2% vs market 50.0% (edge +80.4%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.