Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 23.6% · fair market: 24.3% · edge: -2.8%
Model probabilities Yannick Hanfmann 23.6% · Arthur Fils 76.4% Why Arthur Fils is favoured Arthur Fils's Elo (1770) is +169 over Yannick Hanfmann (1601); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 18.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 23.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.