Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Kimmer Coppejans
To win
+$152.60
Total payout
$172.60
Joint prob
27.3%
Combined odds
8.63
Fair odds
3.66
Edge
+136.0%
Expected value: +$27.20 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$27.20 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 27.3% · fair market: 11.1% · edge: +145.9%
Model probabilities Kimmer Coppejans 27.3% · Stefanos Tsitsipas 72.7% Why Stefanos Tsitsipas is favoured Stefanos Tsitsipas's Elo (1630) is +126 over Kimmer Coppejans (1503); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 22.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 27.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 27.3% vs market 11.1% (edge +145.9%, suggested Kelly +17.8% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.