Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Francisco Cerundolo
To win
+$17.60
Total payout
$37.60
Joint prob
74.1%
Combined odds
1.88
Fair odds
1.35
Edge
+39.3%
Expected value: +$7.86 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.86 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 74.1% · fair market: 51.7% · edge: +43.4%
Model probabilities Francisco Cerundolo 74.1% · Roman Safiullin 25.9% Why Francisco Cerundolo is favoured Francisco Cerundolo's Elo (1702) is +143 over Roman Safiullin (1560); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 79.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 74.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 74.1% vs market 51.7% (edge +43.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.