Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arthur Fils
To win
+$8.40
Total payout
$28.40
Joint prob
78.3%
Combined odds
1.42
Fair odds
1.28
Edge
+11.2%
Expected value: +$2.23 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.23 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 78.3% · fair market: 68.8% · edge: +13.8%
Model probabilities Arthur Fils 78.3% · Cameron Norrie 21.7% Why Arthur Fils is favoured Arthur Fils's Elo (1785) is +136 over Cameron Norrie (1649); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 78.3% vs market 68.8% (edge +13.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.