Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 11.6% · fair market: 12.7% · edge: -8.7%
Model probabilities Polina Kudermetova 11.6% · Mirra Andreeva 88.4% Why Mirra Andreeva is favoured Mirra Andreeva's Elo (1818) is +345 over Polina Kudermetova (1473); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 7.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 11.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.