Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Frances Tiafoe
To win
+$21.20
Total payout
$41.20
Joint prob
49.8%
Combined odds
2.06
Fair odds
2.01
Edge
+2.6%
Expected value: +$0.52 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.52 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 49.8% · fair market: 47.3% · edge: +5.3%
Model probabilities Learner Tien 50.2% · Frances Tiafoe 49.8% Why Learner Tien is favoured Learner Tien's Elo (1763) is +41 over Frances Tiafoe (1722); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 61.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 50.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 49.8% vs market 47.3% (edge +5.3%, suggested Kelly +2.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.