Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arthur Fery
To win
+$26.80
Total payout
$46.80
Joint prob
48.4%
Combined odds
2.34
Fair odds
2.07
Edge
+13.3%
Expected value: +$2.65 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.65 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 48.4% · fair market: 41.5% · edge: +16.6%
Model probabilities Quentin Halys 51.6% · Arthur Fery 48.4% Why Quentin Halys is favoured Elo essentially level (1538 vs 1530) — winner depends on context. +EV vs market away: model 48.4% vs market 41.5% (edge +16.6%, suggested Kelly +9.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.