Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Thea Frodin
To win
+$185.40
Total payout
$205.40
Joint prob
13.4%
Combined odds
10.27
Fair odds
7.45
Edge
+37.9%
Expected value: +$7.59 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.59 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 13.4% · fair market: 9.4% · edge: +42.3%
Model probabilities Thea Frodin 13.4% · Elena Rybakina 86.6% Calibration Raw model: 3.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 13.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 13.4% vs market 9.4% (edge +42.3%, suggested Kelly +4.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.