Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Katarzyna Kawa
To win
+$40.60
Total payout
$60.60
Joint prob
46.8%
Combined odds
3.03
Fair odds
2.14
Edge
+41.9%
Expected value: +$8.37 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$8.37 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 46.8% · fair market: 31.6% · edge: +48.1%
Model probabilities Eva Lys 53.2% · Katarzyna Kawa 46.8% Why Eva Lys is favoured Eva Lys's Elo (1616) is +142 over Katarzyna Kawa (1473); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 79.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 46.8% vs market 31.6% (edge +48.1%, suggested Kelly +20.6% of bankroll).