Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Fabian Marozsan
To win
+$11.40
Total payout
$31.40
Joint prob
80.9%
Combined odds
1.57
Fair odds
1.24
Edge
+27.1%
Expected value: +$5.41 on a $20 stake.
Fabian Marozsan is returning to play at the ATP Canadian Open after withdrawing from the Umag tournament due to a left knee injury on July 27, 2026. He has not played a match since Wimbledon, indicating a potential lack of match fitness. Shintaro Mochizuki, conversely, has been actively competing on the Challenger tour since Wimbledon, suggesting he is in good match rhythm.
Expected value: +$5.41 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 80.9% · fair market: 61.9% · edge: +30.8%
Model probabilities Shintaro Mochizuki 19.1% · Fabian Marozsan 80.9% Why Fabian Marozsan is favoured Fabian Marozsan's Elo (1590) is +162 over Shintaro Mochizuki (1428); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 80.9% vs market 61.9% (edge +30.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.