Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Frances Tiafoe
To win
+$42.60
Total payout
$62.60
Joint prob
42.2%
Combined odds
3.13
Fair odds
2.37
Edge
+32.0%
Expected value: +$6.41 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.41 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 42.2% · fair market: 31.1% · edge: +35.8%
Model probabilities Arthur Fils 57.8% · Frances Tiafoe 42.2% Why Arthur Fils is favoured Arthur Fils's Elo (1793) is +47 over Frances Tiafoe (1746); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 63.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 57.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 42.2% vs market 31.1% (edge +35.8%, suggested Kelly +15.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.