Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Carol Zhao
To win
+$189.80
Total payout
$209.80
Joint prob
22.8%
Combined odds
10.49
Fair odds
4.38
Edge
+139.4%
Expected value: +$27.87 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$27.87 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 22.8% · fair market: 9.2% · edge: +148.6%
Model probabilities Carol Zhao 22.8% · Magda Linette 77.2% Why Magda Linette is favoured Magda Linette's Elo (1589) is +126 over Carol Zhao (1463); medium confidence. +EV vs market home: model 22.8% vs market 9.2% (edge +148.6%, suggested Kelly +14.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.