Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Adrian Mannarino
To win
+$29.80
Total payout
$49.80
Joint prob
69.6%
Combined odds
2.49
Fair odds
1.44
Edge
+73.4%
Expected value: +$14.68 on a $20 stake.
No material integrity, morale, or squad-news flags found in the last 14 days.
Expected value: +$14.68 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 69.6% · fair market: 39.1% · edge: +78.0%
Jacob Fearnley is experiencing a strong resurgence in his form, recovering from a difficult start to 2026. He has secured 16 victories in recent weeks, highlighted by a title win at the Newport Challenger and runner-up finishes at the Ilkley and Bloomfield Hills Challengers. Fearnley successfully qualified for the main draw of the ATP Canadian Open in Montreal by defeating Sebastian Ofner.
Lineup: Jacob Fearnley has successfully qualified for the main draw of the ATP Canadian Open (Montreal).
Adrian Mannarino has shown an encouraging start to the North American hard-court swing in Washington, which provides a solid foundation for his performance. He achieved a straight-sets victory over Learner Tien in the opening round, followed by a competitive match against Alex Michelsen in the second round.
Lineup: Adrian Mannarino is expected to play in the main draw of the ATP Canadian Open (Montreal).
“Jacob Fearnley enters Canadian Open with strong momentum after qualifying, while Adrian Mannarino looks to build on a mixed hard-court start.”
Model probabilities Jacob Fearnley 30.4% · Adrian Mannarino 69.6% Why Adrian Mannarino is favoured Adrian Mannarino's Elo (1531) is +83 over Jacob Fearnley (1448); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 69.6% vs market 39.1% (edge +78.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). News context Jacob Fearnley enters Canadian Open with strong momentum after qualifying, while Adrian Mannarino looks to build on a mixed hard-court start. Jacob Fearnley: Jacob Fearnley is experiencing a strong resurgence in his form, recovering from a difficult start to 2026. He has secured 16 victories in recent weeks, highlighted by a title win at the Newport Challenger and runner-up finishes at the Ilkley and Bloomfield Hills Challengers. Fearnley successfully qualified for the main draw of the ATP Canadian Open in Montreal by defeating Sebastian Ofner. Adrian Mannarino: Adrian Mannarino has shown an encouraging start to the North American hard-court swing in Washington, which provides a solid foundation for his performance. He achieved a straight-sets victory over Learner Tien in the opening round, followed by a competitive match against Alex Michelsen in the second round.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.