Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Magda Linette
To win
+$18.80
Total payout
$38.80
Joint prob
60.6%
Combined odds
1.94
Fair odds
1.65
Edge
+17.5%
Expected value: +$3.51 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.51 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 60.6% · fair market: 50.0% · edge: +21.2%
Model probabilities Magda Linette 60.6% · Francesca Jones 39.4% Why Magda Linette is favoured Magda Linette's Elo (1579) is +141 over Francesca Jones (1438); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 78.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 60.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 60.6% vs market 50.0% (edge +21.2%, suggested Kelly +18.7% of bankroll).