Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elena Rybakina
To win
+$19.40
Total payout
$39.40
Joint prob
78.3%
Combined odds
1.97
Fair odds
1.28
Edge
+54.2%
Expected value: +$10.85 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$10.85 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 78.3% · fair market: 49.5% · edge: +58.2%
Model probabilities Naomi Osaka 21.7% · Elena Rybakina 78.3% Why Elena Rybakina is favoured Elena Rybakina's Elo (1968) is +210 over Naomi Osaka (1758); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 15.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 21.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 78.3% vs market 49.5% (edge +58.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.