Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sun Xinran
To win
+$42.40
Total payout
$62.40
Joint prob
32.3%
Combined odds
3.12
Fair odds
3.10
Edge
+0.7%
Expected value: +$0.14 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.14 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 32.3% · fair market: 31.1% · edge: +3.7%
Model probabilities Eva Lys 67.7% · Sun Xinran 32.3% Calibration Raw model: 74.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 67.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 32.3% vs market 31.1% (edge +3.7%, suggested Kelly +0.3% of bankroll).