Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 16.6% · fair market: 16.4% · edge: +1.1%
Model probabilities Daria Snigur 16.6% · Mirra Andreeva 83.4% Why Mirra Andreeva is favoured Mirra Andreeva's Elo (1822) is +265 over Daria Snigur (1557); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 11.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 16.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.