Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jakub Mensik
To win
+$11.80
Total payout
$31.80
Joint prob
64.7%
Combined odds
1.59
Fair odds
1.54
Edge
+2.9%
Expected value: +$0.59 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.59 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 64.7% · fair market: 61.1% · edge: +5.9%
Model probabilities Alexander Bublik 35.3% · Jakub Mensik 64.7% Why Jakub Mensik is favoured Jakub Mensik's Elo (1746) is +56 over Alexander Bublik (1690); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 64.7% vs market 61.1% (edge +5.9%, suggested Kelly +5.0% of bankroll).