Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Flavio Cobolli
To win
+$16.60
Total payout
$36.60
Joint prob
69.4%
Combined odds
1.83
Fair odds
1.44
Edge
+27.0%
Expected value: +$5.40 on a $20 stake.
Flavio Cobolli enters the match on a three-match losing streak and has not played in ten days, which could impact his morale and on-court performance. Miomir Kecmanovic recently secured a straight-sets victory in his last match.
Flavio Cobolli is currently on a three-match losing streak and has not competed in ten days, potentially affecting his morale.
Miomir Kecmanovic is expected to play, having recently won his previous match against Camilo Ugo Carabelli in straight sets.
Flavio Cobolli is expected to play, despite being on a three-match losing streak and having had a ten-day break from competition.
Expected value: +$5.40 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 69.4% · fair market: 52.8% · edge: +31.4%
Model probabilities Miomir Kecmanovic 30.6% · Flavio Cobolli 69.4% Why Flavio Cobolli is favoured Flavio Cobolli's Elo (1598) is +64 over Miomir Kecmanovic (1534); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 32.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 30.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 69.4% vs market 52.8% (edge +31.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.