Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jiri Lehecka
To win
+$7.60
Total payout
$27.60
Joint prob
77.7%
Combined odds
1.38
Fair odds
1.29
Edge
+7.2%
Expected value: +$1.44 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.44 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 77.7% · fair market: 70.4% · edge: +10.3%
Model probabilities Jiri Lehecka 77.7% · Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 22.3% Why Jiri Lehecka is favoured Jiri Lehecka's Elo (1723) is +212 over Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (1511); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 85.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 77.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 77.7% vs market 70.4% (edge +10.3%, suggested Kelly +19.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.