Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Qinwen Zheng
To win
+$6.00
Total payout
$26.00
Joint prob
78.6%
Combined odds
1.30
Fair odds
1.27
Edge
+2.2%
Expected value: +$0.44 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.44 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 78.6% · fair market: 75.3% · edge: +4.4%
Model probabilities Alina Charaeva 21.4% · Qinwen Zheng 78.6% Why Qinwen Zheng is favoured Qinwen Zheng's Elo (1745) is +193 over Alina Charaeva (1552); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 16.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 21.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 78.6% vs market 75.3% (edge +4.4%, suggested Kelly +7.3% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.