Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Peyton Stearns
To win
+$15.40
Total payout
$35.40
Joint prob
70.0%
Combined odds
1.77
Fair odds
1.43
Edge
+23.9%
Expected value: +$4.78 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.78 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 70.0% · fair market: 54.8% · edge: +27.6%
Model probabilities Elena Gabriela Ruse 30.0% · Peyton Stearns 70.0% Why Peyton Stearns is favoured Peyton Stearns's Elo (1581) is +78 over Elena Gabriela Ruse (1503); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 70.0% vs market 54.8% (edge +27.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.